What happens if Donald Trump wins US Presidential Election 2024?
Although the situation was not the same two weeks ago as it sounds today. But that time too, multiple surveys had projected more possibilities than the earlier Democrat candidate.
Former US President and Republican candidate Donald Trump has been enjoying an edge in the current political situation in America, with the majority of polls suggesting a strong potential for his return to the White House.
Although the situation was not the same two weeks ago as it sounds today. But that time too, multiple surveys had projected more possibilities than the earlier Democrat candidate and the incumbent President Joe Biden. With the assassination attempt on Trump during the Pennslyvania rally, surveys have indicated he gained momentum– both “emotionally” and “economically”.
Now, as 81-year-old President Biden dropped his candidature, thus “passing the torch to his second-in-command”, Kamala Harris, a poll conducted by news agency Reuters showed Harris with a 44 per cent to 42 per cent lead over the Republican candidate. The agency claimed there might be a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error. This means there are strong chances that the 78-year-old leader may return to power.
Impact on two ongoing wars
Trump on Israel-Hamas War:
If he returns to the White House next year, he will most probably continue his strong support for Israel, reinforcing the close ties between the US and Jerusalem. Noting Trump’s first tenure, there are chances that his policies favour Israel, such as additional military aid or diplomatic backing in international forums.
Trump-led government could take a more “hardline approach” against Hamas and support Israel’s actions more openly.
Russia-Ukraine war:
The day after formally accepting the Republican nomination for president, Trump had a phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump dubbed the conversation as “very good,” noting that Zelenskyy congratulated him on securing the GOP nomination and condemned the recent assassination attempt.
“I appreciate President Zelenskyy for reaching out because I, as your next President of the United States, will bring peace to the world and end the war that has cost so many lives and devastated countless innocent families,” Trump said in a post to Truth Social. “Both sides will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the violence and paves a path forward to prosperity.” Trump also boasted of ending the conflict but did not elaborate– “how”?
The same was echoed by the war-torn President who agreed to a private meeting with Trump.
Although it was too early to judge the conversation between the two leaders, the past statements of Trump suggested he could take a harsher step against Kyiv. It means he could limit the US aid to the already war-ravaged nation which has been indulged in a full-fledged war since February 24, 2022.
Push to Middle East Policies
Trump’s policies had favoured the Middle East. Therefore, it is possible he could lead further initiatives like the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations. He might drive more nations to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. Possibly, Trump could work on broader regional agreements.
Foreign Policy
Ever since Trump donned the power in 2016, he shifted America’s foreign policies, especially those that were implemented by his predecessor Barack Obama. His return would mean harder actions on those nations which are enjoying a major chunk of America’s taxpayer’s money. Trump may reinstate his “America First” foreign policy, potentially changing the US’s stance on international alliances and agreements. As hinted his stance against the security alliance, NATO members, he could pull back his support or limit the funding meant for other nations.
“Rumpnomics”
During his last tenure, “Trumpnomics” had gained momentum– implementing tax cuts, reducing regulations, and focusing on trade policies designed to lower trade deficits. He may again start a trade war with America’s giant rivals such as China and some European nations. He had already started a campaign– “Make America Great Again”. This means he could force companies to bring their factories back to America.
Immigration
Migration influx has always been a major issue in American politics. As he had promised to build a wall along the US-Mexico border, he will definitely fulfil his words. Earlier, he had argued that it would reduce illegal immigration and enhance national security. The wall became a central symbol of his immigration policy.
Trump implemented a series of travel bans targeting several predominantly Muslim countries. These bans were justified on the grounds of national security, although they faced significant legal challenges and criticisms from various groups.
Environment policies
Trump has always boosted domestic production– thus ignoring the repercussions on climate. Therefore, possibly the Republican leader could reverse or roll back environmental regulations and climate policies introduced during his successor’s regime.
Justice Department
As Trump is facing more than 200 cases, especially sexual harassment and property, he would have the chance to appoint additional federal judges, including potential Supreme Court justices, which could influence US law and policy for years to come.
It means Trump’s victory would likely see a return to his prior policies, including bolstering ties with Israel, adopting a hardline approach to Middle Eastern conflicts, and potentially reshaping both domestic and international policies according to his “America First” agenda.